Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed 10 fewer scores from open play compared to this point the previous campaign.

A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign has been the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides are finding goals more from dead-ball situations instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less in total.

If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking show an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than this time last time out.

And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, records show only two additional attempts produced from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating how effective teams have been at finding ways to convert from set-pieces.

Goal Averages Show an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far calculates at 2.74 scores per fixture, if this persists for all 38 games might be the lowest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

However, only under 200 goals scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the smallest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).

2009-10 also marks the unique EPL season to witness scoring more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen by far the biggest decline, scoring a mere four in 11 games, 10 less than this point the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolves, the EPL's fall in open play goals is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the London's seven clubs scoring a minimum of five fewer goals from open-play than the previous year.

In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring many goals at the start of last season rather than them having difficulty to convert in open play this campaign.

Meanwhile Man City have recorded the biggest increase, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far arriving in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at clubs that came up with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions the Black Cats have scored three extra goals in open-play than Southampton achieved in their first 11 games on their way to the drop last season.

Regarding scoring from set-plays (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the largest rise, with both sides replacing the five less goals that they've produced in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.

Manchester United have netted twice as many scores from set-pieces as they achieved in the 11 games last season before their coach assumed control, while Sunderland again have been more successful at scoring than the club they replaced that went down.

Man City seem unaware of the trend about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've scored three fewer than last season, similar to the Reds, although this could be because of the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

Overall Patterns

Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – represent this term's primary examples by netting less scores from open-play and increased from set-plays, while City stand as the unique club to go against the grain to date by achieving the complete reverse.

It will be fascinating to observe if teams persist to depend greatly on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they regain their overall inventiveness and commence scoring additional scores in open-play too.

Timothy Ramirez
Timothy Ramirez

Seasoned casino strategist with over a decade of experience in gaming and probability analysis.