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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.