🔗 Share this article Polls Open in Holland as Surveys Suggest Possible Repeat Victory for Geert Wilders Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government. Polling Trends and Election Dynamics The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament. Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans. Major Parties and Forecasts Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats. Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22. The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses. Electoral System and Fragmentation Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament. This high degree of division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years. Government Formation Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome. Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right. Election Day Details Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time. Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.