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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.