Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Timothy Ramirez
Timothy Ramirez

Seasoned casino strategist with over a decade of experience in gaming and probability analysis.