Why Middle Eastern Money Hasn't Transformed Newcastle into Championship Challengers

Eddie Howe isn't typically prone to histrionics or grand media statements. Based on his usual demeanor, his media briefing after the weekend's 3-1 defeat counts as a furious outburst. Newcastle took an early lead but West Ham took the lead by the interval, while also hitting the post and having a penalty revoked by VAR, prompting Howe to execute a triple change at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I think this indicated of our performance level at that stage in the game and it's extremely uncommon for me to have that impression. Actually, I cannot recall I have since I’ve been manager of Newcastle, so I felt the squad needed a significant change at the break. This explains why I did what I did.”

Three key players were substituted at the interval and Newcastle did stabilise to an extent in the second half, without ever appearing like they might fight back into the contest against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine league matches. Considering the congestion the centre of the standings is, with a mere three-point gap dividing the top spots from mid-table, and nine points between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from 10 games has not left the Magpies adrift but, equally, they must not end the campaign in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Perception

The problem partially is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle have the richest owners in the world. The assumption at the time the Saudi fund acquired a majority stake of the team in recent years was that it would have a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two investors took over before the advent of FFP rules (and the current charges against Manchester City relate to if they breached those regulations after they were implemented).

Profit and sustainability restrictions restrict the ability of owners, however rich, to spend money on their squads and so in that sense likely might have hindered any Middle Eastern effort to raise the team to the standard of Manchester City. But there is no need for Newcastle’s spending to have been so restrained as it has been; they could have spent more and remained within the threshold – or simply taken a relatively meagre Uefa penalty given their major issue is primarily with the European than the Premier League regulation.

Infrastructure Spending and PSR Regulations

Additionally, stadium development is exempted from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest method to increase revenue to generate additional PSR flexibility would be to expand or redevelop the arena. Given the site of the home ground, with protected structures on two sides, in reality that probably implies building an completely new stadium. Rumors circulated in spring of potentially undertaking the short move to a local park – opposition from community organizations might have been surmounted with a commitment to create a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has been any progress on that plan. There has been significant cutbacks from the Saudi fund on a range of initiatives as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the approach to the football club seems entirely in alignment with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Saga

The Alexander Isak episode was born of that tension. A more confident leadership might have portrayed his transfer as necessary to release capital for further spending; rather there was a unsuccessful attempt to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amid a sense of disappointment even with the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: one win in their first six fixtures.

But it appeared a corner had been turned. They secured five victories in six matches prior to Sunday, a run that featured convincing wins of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the European competition. This explains the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that Newcastle’s approach is very aggressive, high-energy; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound effects. Maybe the strain of domestic, Champions League and Carabao Cup competition, five games in 15 days, had got to them. Woltemade featured in all five games and appeared especially fatigued.

The Nature of Modern Soccer

This is the nature of modern football. Coaches have to be ready to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that the forward's injury has left him lacking attacking options but, no matter how reasonable the explanations, the weekend's performance was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a stadium ready to criticize its own side.

Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, an off-day when everybody is below par simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to secure the Champions League in the future, let alone one day launch an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as they have been.

Timothy Ramirez
Timothy Ramirez

Seasoned casino strategist with over a decade of experience in gaming and probability analysis.